Last month, I showed mostly monthly charts and multi-year forecasts. The first leg of USD strength (except for Yen) within a multi-year bull is probably complete or close to complete so this month I am focusing on shorter term structure. The EURUSD is at a crossroads right now. The immensely… Read More …
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No change since last month: This is a chart that we have focused on time and time again. A 4th wave triangle (that took 12 years) is complete at 124.13 as a 4th wave and the USDJPY is headed lower in a 5th wave (and terminal thrust) that will end… Read More …
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The long term bearish objective for the GBPUSD remains below 1.3680. The bulk of December will probably see the GBPUSD trace out a 4th wave correction, which could reach as high as 1.6696 (38.2% of 2.0162-1.4554 and 4th wave of one less degree extreme). Read More …
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No change since last month: The USDCHF is in the exact same position as the EURUSD (but as the inverse). The USDCHF is lagging the EURUSD a bit though as the pair just broke above its long term trendline (resistance in this case). The long term target is now above… Read More …
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I wrote last month that “the corrective nature of the decline from 1.6194 suggests that the USDCAD will eventually exceed 1.6194 (this may take years though). A large correction of the recent rally would serve as wave 2 within the 5 wave impulse that began at .9055.” A push through… Read More …
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The AUDUSD spent all of November trading sideways. Still, a 5 wave drop from the top (.9856) is evident so a correction is underway. Initial resistance is the confluence of the former 4th wave and 38.2% of .9856-.6005; at .7256. Read More …
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The NZDUSD count from the top is not nearly as clear as the AUDUSD count but the two tend to trade in tandem. Additional evidence favors a NZDUSD recovery this month, especially the quintuple divergence with RSI on the daily. Initial resistance is above .60, which is former congestion and… Read More …
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Our recession model puts the latest probability of recession at 94 percent. There is certainly overwhelming evidence that the domestic economy continues in recession mode as both consumer spending and business investment have weakened. Key model inputs such as leading indicators and employment signal continued problems ahead. Read More …
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Using history as a guide, credit conditions to date imply U.S. job losses could continue to accelerate late into 2009, with over a million job losses in a quarter, and core inflation could fall to near 0% by 2010. Even if this proves pessimistic, the risk of deflation will be… Read More …
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The Fed has been on an easing cycle for many months now. At its most recent rate decision, the Fed lowered the fed funds rate by 50 bps to 1.00% and left the door open for further cuts. Going forward, we think that another 50 bps easing is in the… Read More …
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