The Dollar-Yen pair was down more than 100 pips, as overnight losses that started in the European session continued in NY trading. The Dow Jones index was 200 points lower at 1 PM EST. The increase to risk aversion helped the Yen and the Swiss Franc. The Swiss Franc gained… Read More …
| Tagged Fundamental Outlook |
Given the significant slowdown in domestic demand growth over the past months, the ISM index’s resilience has taken us by surprise – even when accounting for the positive impact from strong export demand and lean inventories. While we could be underestimating the positive effect from export and inventories, we still… Read More …
| Tagged Fundamental Outlook |
The dollar tumbled after rating agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded various US financial sector firms. The euro hit session high at 1.5588 versus the dollar following the news. US data released earlier in the session were slightly above the expectations, but had little impact on the market. Manufacturing ISM rose… Read More …
| Tagged Fundamental Outlook |
Below trend growth remains the story for manufacturing as the ISM index of manufacturing activity came in at 49.6, below 50 for the fifth time in the last six months. Orders and production improved while employment remains sub-par. Prices are an issue and suggest profit pressures. On the positive, rising… Read More …
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Total construction spending fell 0.4 percent in April, above the consensus of -0.6 percent. Spending in February was downwardly revised, while March was revised up to -0.6 percent. Residential spending declined 2.1 percent, however nonresidential continues to be a bright spot rising 0.7 percent. Read More …
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The RBA rate decision will be closely watched by traders as the central bank left the possibility of a rate hike after they were more hawkish than expected at their last meeting. The MPC had considerable discussion as whether to hike rates again after they paused in April as the… Read More …
| Tagged Fundamental Outlook |
We have postponed our expectations of ECB rate cuts until 2009. Earlier we expected rates to be cut in 2008. However, inflation has yet again surprised on the upside, as commodity prices have continued to soar. Inflation will therefore remain higher for longer. We expect inflation to climb up gradually… Read More …
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The May ISM index surprised a bit on the upside with a rise to 49.6 from 48.6. The tone of the sub indices was generally improved, though many categories still remain under the 50-expansion/contraction threshold. The production sub index popped up above 50 for the first time since February. It… Read More …
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The data from the U.S economy failed to support the dollar much though they came in better than expected yet the manufacturing still in contraction combined with surging inflation sub-index supported fears of the ongoing stagflation scenario for the U.S economy. While the stock market continuing the slide after Europe… Read More …
| Tagged Fundamental Outlook |
The ISM manufacturing index for May edged higher to a stronger-than-expected 49.6 from 48.6 in April, moving within a hair of the 50 mark. This is the third consecutive monthly gain after a three-year low in February. The May reading suggests that stronger exports are helping to alleviate persistent weakness… Read More …
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